In the May budget, Victorian Treasury forecasts the State’s economy will not be as deeply affected by the global recession, but nor will it recover as strongly as other parts of Australia, notably the resource-rich states.
The impact of the recession means that last year’s forward projection of surplus net operating balances has been whittled back, severely inhibiting the Victorian Government’s ability to support discretionary spending over the period.
Nevertheless, Intermedium estimates that the total operating expenditure ICT budget of Victorian government agencies will remain steady, at around $1.3 billion annually, through until 2012-13.
Speaking at Intermedium’s Victorian Budget Briefing last week, Intermedium’s Victorian Government team, comprising Head of Research Tim Conway and Senior Associates Jane Treadwell and Tom Tomlin, outlined Intermedium’s analysis of Victoria’s Budget Papers. They noted that while the Budget Papers show just $111.7 million in ICT related capital spending over the three years to 2012-13, Intermedium has identified output spending that directly generates additional ICT spending worth almost $740 million over the same period.
In total, Intermedium’s analysis identifies 22 initiatives worth $850.5 million over the next four years, from that identified in capital expenditure and inferred within program output spending. In addition, further spending is expected to arise from bushfire recovery efforts and implementation of an integrated transport strategy, as well as the flow-on of national education and skills, and health initiatives.